The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a slowdown in Africa’s economic growth momentum for 2026, contrary to earlier forecasts, citing the ripple effects of the Middle East conflict and persistent structural vulnerabilities across the continent.
This was contained in a joint statement issued by Chairman of the African Caucus and Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of The Gambia, Mr. Seedy Keita, and the Managing Director of the IMF, Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, at the conclusion of the African Consultative Group meeting.
According to the statement, real GDP growth on the continent is projected to decline from 4.5 percent in 2025 to 4.2 percent in 2026, with Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa recording growth rates of 4.3 percent and 4.1 percent respectively,down from 4.5 percent each in 2025.
The Fund attributed the revised outlook to high debt service burdens, limited access to affordable financing, and growing development needs that continue to constrain policy space, particularly in low-income and fragile states.
The ongoing war in the Middle East, the statement warned, adds another layer of complexity, with the potential for severe scarring including the return of inflation, food shortages, and social tensions.
In response to the deteriorating outlook, the African Consultative Group urged policymakers to focus on near-term shock response while simultaneously building medium-term resilience.
The Group called for keeping inflation expectations anchored and protecting the most vulnerable through targeted, time-bound support measures.
On fiscal policy, the statement drew a clear distinction between oil-exporting and oil-importing economies advising exporting economies to save temporary windfalls and rebuild fiscal buffers, while urging importing economies like to safeguard priority social and development spending, mobilise domestic revenues, and improve spending efficiency.
The African Consultative Group was formed in 2007 to enhance the IMF’s policy dialogue with the African Caucus, comprising Fund Governors from a subset of 12 African countries, African finance ministers, central bank governors, and Fund management.
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